With all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the men’s Final Four, we’re set for a showdown of elite talent and high-stakes drama. The action tips off Saturday night at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas as the Florida Gators take on the Auburn Tigers, followed by the Duke Blue Devils facing the Houston Cougars.
So, which point spreads and over/unders offer the best value? And what other betting angles stand out?
Let’s factor in team trends, injuries, momentum and more to identify the smartest wagers to make over the weekend.
Odds are accurate as of publication time. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Florida vs. Auburn, 6:09 p.m. ET
Bet: Under 160.5
When Florida played Auburn in February, they earned a 90-81 road win with their second-leading scorer Alijah Martin out due to injury. Martin has since been an impact player while the post is even further fortified since that previous matchup, with Gators forward Micah Handlogten burning his redshirt late in the season. Florida’s added depth down low is notable with Auburn star forward Johni Broome, the Tigers’ leading scorer and rebounder, banged up and being held out of practice in hopes of being as healthy as possible on Saturday.
Florida ranks in the top 25 in the country in both 2-point and 3-point shooting percentage defense. With Handlogten being a defense-oriented player and Auburn’s best attribute in recent weeks being defense, allowing 70 points or fewer in each of the past six games, this has the makings of a game that’s lower scoring than expected.
Duke vs. Houston, 8:49 p.m. ET
Bet: Houston +5
Houston gets to play this game in their home state and has a style of play similar to Clemson, which is the only team that has defeated Duke since the calendar flipped to 2025. Houston plays slowly, ranking in the bottom 10 in the country in possessions per game. The Cougars consistently dominate the turnover battle, and rank second in the country in 3-point shooting percentage. Duke is a balanced team with tons of size, with every main player in their rotation standing at least 6-foot-5, but Houston has the strength down low and the discipline to stick with their grinder style to keep things close.
One of the few things Duke hasn’t done a lot of this season is play close games, and Milos Uzan’s emergence for Houston the past 21 games has been key. During that stretch, he has averaged 14 points and four assists per game while shooting 50.6% from 3-point range. Uzan gives Houston the floor general needed to stand up to Duke on both ends of the floor, and with Houston also leading the country in fewest points per possession allowed on defense, at a minimum they can keep this game close, if not win outright.
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